Maybulk 2013 Q4 announcement forcast

This month Maybulk is going to report it's final Quarter results for FY 2013. Will losses expend or reduce? 

The following diagram might tell us the answer:

The Baltic Dry Index has increased about 40% Q-Q.

Is Maybulk's revenue from dry bulk segment set to rise about 40%? Is the Baltic Dry Index a good indicator For Maybulk's top line? Perhaps the following will shed some light:

  

Taken from 2013Q3 report, the TCE (Time charter average) Maybulk's actual average charter rate collected was USD8968. This is not far from the Baltik Dry Index's 9 month average of 966 points.

This is also in tandem with the following chart taken from Maybulk's 2012 annual report presentation slide:

My take is the Q4 result will be an improvement from Q3 about 30% as Dry Bulk contributes about 70% of total revenue.
Q3 revenue is RM62m, Q4 is expected to be about RM80m, if gross margin of 60% is maintain, expecting Q4 PBT to be in the black or slightly below.

However, during the CNY period, Baltic Dry index has plunge 50% from the 2013 Dec high of 2300 point to 1100 points. CNY is historically is a low period for the dry bulk segment. Will need to monitor closely to see if the index does rebounds. News flow of Chines ore imports to stock up is favorable to Maybulk.